Gas furnace in zone 5, 1,800 sq ft
$1,400 winter gas, $0.14/kWh electric, $12,000 install, COP 3.0.
Often shows roughly $400–$700 annual savings and payback near 15–20 years before rebates — rebates materially change the answer.
Estimator · Free
Heat Pump Savings Calculator
Compare annual heating cost on gas, oil, propane, or electric resistance to a heat pump — savings and simple payback.
Annual savings
$1,399
Breakeven in about 8.6 years · 10-year net $1,991
- Current heat (annual)
- $1,400
- Heat pump (annual)
- $1
- Est. kWh / year
- 7 kWh
- Heating load (screening)
- 0.05 MMBtu
Shareable summary
Quick answer
A heat pump often cuts heating energy cost when it replaces electric resistance or an aging furnace — typical simple payback is roughly 5–12 years depending on fuel price, climate, and install cost, not counting rebates. Enter your current fuel spend, home size, climate zone, electric rate, and estimated install price below to see annual savings and breakeven years for your inputs.
What this assumes
- Heating load uses IECC climate-zone BTU-per-square-foot screening factors, not a Manual J.
- Fuel prices are implied from your annual spend and estimated usage — enter a bill that matches a normal winter.
- Heat pump COP defaults to a cold-climate planning value; actual COP varies with outdoor temperature and defrost.
Important
Operating savings depend on real COP, rate tariffs, and backup heat use. A licensed HVAC contractor should run Manual J and match equipment to your duct system before you commit.
Understanding the result
Savings come from efficiency, not magic
A heat pump moves heat rather than making it from fuel combustion. When COP is 3, you deliver about three units of heat per unit of electricity. Resistance heat is COP 1. Gas and oil furnaces land around 80–95% efficiency at the appliance.
Breakeven is simple payback
Divide net install cost by annual savings. It ignores financing, rebates, and maintenance — use it to see whether the project is in the ballpark before you collect itemized quotes.
How the math works
Annual heating energy is estimated from climate-zone BTU per square foot and your stated fuel spend. Heat pump operating cost uses the same delivered BTU need divided by COP, times your $/kWh. Breakeven = install cost ÷ annual savings (simple payback).
Where to find each input
- Annual heating fuel spend — last winter’s gas, propane, oil, or electric heat portion of the bill
- Conditioned square footage — county assessor or tape measure
- IECC climate zone — energy code map for your county
- $/kWh — electric utility rate schedule (often on the bill)
- Installed conversion cost — itemized HVAC quote after rebates
Worked examples
Electric resistance in zone 4
$2,200 electric heat, same home, $10,000 ducted heat pump, COP 2.9.
Savings can exceed $800/year with payback under 12 years — resistance replacement is the strongest economic case.
Mild zone 3, newer gas furnace
$900 gas, $11,000 install, COP 3.2.
Savings may be modest — economics may depend on cooling replacement and incentives, not heat alone.
What this does not include
- Utility rate riders
- Maintenance
- Duct retrofit
- Panel upgrades
- Financing interest
Regional adjustment
Cold-climate metros may have higher electric delivery charges — use your actual tariff. Fuel oil and propane markets are hyper-local.
Accuracy and references
IECC climate factors; DOE heat pump performance guides; True Trade Path heat-pump-conversion cost guide.
Counterpart bridge
Pricing this on the contractor side?
This page interprets quotes and budgets from the buyer’s chair. The matching pro tool uses the same scope logic to build a defensible price.
Open HVAC Service Call Pricing CalculatorFor trade owners
Pricing this job as a contractor?
Homeowners see national ranges on this page. If you are building the estimate, use the same scope assumptions — then price to burdened labor, overhead recovery and a real margin.
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Find a licensed pro
When you are ready to hire for heat pump savings calculator, start with licence verification — not with whoever answered first.
No paid placement
Rankings are never sold. Order reflects verification depth and relevance, not payment.
Verify any licence yourself before signing: state licensing hub.
Common questions
How much can I save switching to a heat pump?
Many homes save 20–40% on heating energy cost in moderate climates when replacing resistance or older gas — but cold snaps and rate structures matter. Use your actual bill and rate below.
What COP should I use?
Use 2.8–3.2 for cold-climate air-source heat pumps in winter average conditions. Mild climates may average higher; heavy backup strip heat lowers effective COP.
Does this include cooling savings?
No — heating comparison only. Dual-mode heat pumps also replace AC; add summer savings separately.
What install cost should I enter?
Whole-home conversions often run $8,000–$18,000+ depending on ducts and electrical service. Ductless mini-splits differ — see the mini-split cost tool.
Are rebates included?
Not automatically. Federal 25C credits and utility rebates reduce net cost and shorten payback — apply credits to install cost mentally.
Is propane the same as natural gas?
No — different units and prices. Select the fuel that matches your current appliance.
Why does climate zone matter?
Colder zones need more BTUs per square foot, which raises both fuel and electric cost — but also increases savings when replacing resistance heat.
When is a heat pump a bad fit?
Very leaky homes, undersized ducts, or marginal electrical service may need upgrades that erase savings. Get a load calculation first.
Is this a quote from a contractor?
No — it is a planning band from published medians and engineering rules. Always collect written, itemized bids.
Can I save my results?
Use Print / save PDF on the shareable card or save to your homeowner account when signed in.
Why does my metro change the number?
Labor and permit costs vary by market. We apply a regional cost index from our metro table.
What vintage are the cost ranges?
2024–2026 residential medians cross-checked with True Trade Path cost guides and RSMeans-style repair data.
Does this include tax?
Unless your quote says otherwise, assume sales tax may apply to materials in your state.
Should I get three quotes?
Yes — three comparable scopes are the standard check before you sign.
What if my house is unusual?
Historic homes, steep sites, and commercial-grade equipment need site-specific quotes — treat this as a screen.
Where is the pro counterpart?
See the counterpart bridge at the bottom — contractors use the paired tool to build defensible pricing.
You may also need
The next decision usually follows directly from this one.
- CalculatorEnergy Efficiency Upgrade Savings CalculatorEstimate annual utility savings and payback period for insulation, heat pumps, windows, and solar.
- EstimatorMini-Split Installation Cost CalculatorEstimate ductless mini-split heat pump installation cost by zones, climate rating, and complexity.
- CalculatorHVAC Sizing CalculatorEstimate the heating and cooling capacity a home needs before you get equipment quotes.
- ComparisonRepair or Replace CalculatorCompare the economics of repairing a failing system against replacing it outright.
- Cost guideHeat Pump Conversion CostConverting a gas furnace and AC system to a heat pump for year-round heating and cooling.