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True Trade Path

Comparison · Free

Trade School ROI Calculator

Compare the cost and payback of an apprenticeship, trade school or a four-year degree.

What you are comparing

Journeyman scale is taken as $61,590, the national median for this trade.

10 years

Measured from the day all three paths start, not from graduation.

3%

Applied to every path equally. Not adjusted for inflation.

Path A — registered apprenticeship

No tuition, and you are on payroll from week one at a percentage of journeyman scale that steps up on a schedule.

yrs

This trade typically runs 4–5 years (roughly 8,000 on-the-job hours).

45% of scale

Steps up evenly to 100% of scale in the final year.

Path B — trade school, then work

Tuition out of pocket and reduced earnings while enrolled, then entry wages that climb toward scale.

$
yrs
30% of entry wage

Set this to zero if you intend to study full time.

Path C — four-year bachelor's degree

Four years of tuition and no earnings, financed, then a graduate salary.

$/yr

After grants and scholarships, including room and board you would not otherwise pay.

$/yr
6.5%

Interest accrues while enrolled, then the balance amortizes over 10 years.

Every figure is pre-tax gross earnings less tuition paid in cash, less loan payments made, less any loan balance still outstanding.

Apprenticeship advantage at year 10

$397,705

Ahead of the four-year degree path, and $48,162 ahead of trade school.
ApprenticeshipNo tuition, earning from year one
$636,946
Trade school then work$15,000 of tuition paid in cash
$588,784
Four-year degree$123,401 of debt at graduation
$239,242
Degree overtakes apprenticeshipNot within 10 years on these inputs
Not by then
Cumulative net position by year
YearApprenticeshipTrade schoolFour-year degree
Year 1$27,716-$3,914-$28,000
Year 2$67,893$34,149-$57,820
Year 3$121,254$82,065-$89,578
Year 4$188,555$140,393-$123,401
Year 5$257,876$209,713-$69,422
Year 6$329,275$281,113-$12,989
Year 7$402,817$354,654$45,994
Year 8$478,565$430,402$107,623
Year 9$556,585$508,423$172,003
Year 10$636,946$588,784$239,242
At year 10$636,946$588,784$239,242

Interest is the quiet cost

Borrowing $112,000 at 6.50% costs $59,656 in interest across the 10-year repayment term, and the balance grows by $11,401 before the first payment is ever made.

This models finances only

A degree opens occupations that the trades do not, and the trades open paths that a degree does not. The model also ignores taxes, benefits, pensions, and the single largest earnings jump in the trades — going from employee to contractor, which no occupational wage table captures.

What this assumes

  • Forgone wages during full-time schooling are counted as a real cost of that path.
  • Apprentice wages typically start near 40–50% of journeyman scale and step up on a schedule.
  • Wage growth is applied as a constant annual rate and is not adjusted for inflation.

Important

This models finances only. Degree paths open occupations that trades do not, and trades open paths that degrees do not. Use the number as one input.

Understanding the result

Debt and forgone wages both count

The true cost of a four-year degree is tuition plus four years of wages you did not earn. An apprentice earns from week one, so the gap at graduation is frequently $150,000 or more in favor of the trade — before considering student loan interest.

Where degrees pull ahead, and where they do not

Degree paths often show steeper mid-career wage growth in aggregate, but that aggregate mixes high-earning fields with low-earning ones. A licensed electrician who starts a contracting business commonly out-earns the median bachelor's degree holder over a career.

The ownership variable

The largest earnings jump in the trades comes from moving from employee to contractor. That transition is not captured in any occupational wage table, and it is the single biggest reason trade earnings distributions have such a long right tail.

Common questions

Is trade school worth it?
Financially, usually yes — especially where a paid apprenticeship is available instead. The break-even point against a four-year degree typically arrives within two to six years of starting work, and an apprentice carries no tuition debt.

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The next decision usually follows directly from this one.

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